De “Cone of Uncertainty”

De Cone Of Uncertainty is een belangrijk concept uit projectmanagement, en beschrijft de evolutie van onzekerheid doorheen een project. Onzekerheid neemt af na verloop van tijd.
Bij de start van een project is er véél onzekerheid:

  • niet alle informatie is gekend;
  • er zijn veel ideeën, maar weinig feiten of beslissingen;
  • er is nog onduidelijkheid over de juiste personen in het project team;
  • er is nog onzekerheid over de te gebruiken technologieën;

Aan deze onzekerheid is ook rechtstreeks het risico en inschatting gelinkt. Bij de start heb je de meeste risico’s, en de grootste vork (min/max) voor inschattingen (budget).

Als het project verder vordert, vermindert de onzekerheid, zijn er minder risico’s (door meer inzichten) en krijgen we meer zicht op te presteren taken (en kunnen we dus betere inschattingen maken).

Bij het einde van het project is alles zeker, en is er 0% onzekerheid over.

 

 

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