Inschattingen via PERT analyse

De PERT analyse is gekend door veel mensen, maar wordt quasi nooit gebruikt. Zonde, omdat het wel een goede context meegeeft bij inschattingen. Door het resultaat van de analyse te gebruiken in je communicatie, zal je méérwaarde creëren, transparantie scheppen en verwarring vermijden. Geen enkele reden dus om dit niet te doen.

PERT staat voor Program Evaluation and Review Technique, en is een eenvoudige formule waarbij de best case (O, meest optimistische inschatting), worst case (P, meest pessimistische inschatting) en most likely case (M, meest waarschijnlijke inschatting) tegen elkaar gezet worden. Het resultaat geeft een realistischere inschatting.

Ga je nog een stap verder, dan kan je de variatie ook toevoegen, met dezelfde parameters. Hieronder de formules en een voorbeeld.

PERT formule:

(O + 4xM + P)/6

Variatie op het resultaat:

(P – O)/6

Een voorbeeld:

  • De meest optimistische inschatting: €250 000
  • De meest pessimistische inschatting: € 650 000
  • De meest waarschijnlijke inschatting: €425 000

Dit geeft als resultaat:

( €250 000 + ( 4 x € 425 000 ) + € 650 000 ) / 6 = € 433 333

De variatie hierop geeft vervolgens:

( € 650 000 – €250 000) / 6 = € 66 666

Concreet: de inschatting die je best gebruikt in je communicatie is € 433 333 met een mogelijke variatie van € 66 666 (in min of meer, dus tussen € 366 667 en € 499 999

 

Lees er meer over op Wikipedia!

 

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